英文翻訳お願いします
Mr. Kan has ordered 100,000 troops from Japan's-Defence Forces to the region, but according to Mr. Niinami their task is to find dead bodies rather than distribute supplies.
He has urged the authorities to divert passenger planes to help airlift provisions. Others in the affected region blame the bureaucratic mindest of civil servants for blocking
the flow of emergency supplies.
Layered over the humanitarian and nuclear drama is yet another mounting concern:the effect on Japan's economy. It is in a parlous state, suffering from slow growth, high
debt and relative decline. Many economist at first suggested that things were not as bad as they looked. Of course, there would be a short-term dip in grows.
But as reconstruction began, growth would pick up again. The international impact, too, would be limited. Supply-chain disruption would cause some problems, especially in
the electronics industry, but overall the expected boost in Japanese imports as it rebuilt would help the rest of world.
That, at least, is what the history of recent Asian disasters suggests. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Kashmir earthquake of October 2005 involved death
and destruction on an even wider scale, yet had virtually no impact on growth rates.
That was largely because the victims were mostly poor people who added little to DGP. But even the Kobe earthquake of 1995-the second-biggest ever to hit a modern
urban area-had a surprisingly modest effect.
Within 15 months industrial production in Kobe had almost reached pre-quake levels, and Japan as a whole suffered only one quarter of declining output.
A second reason to expect the economy to cope is that although the area affected by the tsunami and quake was vast, it contains no Kobes. It is less populated and less
industrialised. According to calculations by economists at Nomura, an investment bank, the three worst-hit prefectures(Miyagi, Fukushima and Iwate) account for just 3.6%
of Japan's economy, though electronics factories are clustered there.
Adding in neighbouring Nagano, Ibaraki and Niigata prefectures, which were much less damaged, brings the affected area's contribution to GDP to 10.8%. That is
a big chunk. But Tomo Kinoshita of Nomura nevertheless estimates that the direct negative hit to Japan's GDP would be limited to between 0.25 and 0.5 percentage points
in the first quarter, and 0.5 and 1 percentage point in the second. Another bank, Goldman Sachs, estimates the cost of the damage at ¥16 trillion($202 billion), or about
4% GDP. Spread over a few years of reconstruction, that should easily be affordable-a drop in the ocean of Japanese public indebtedness.
お礼
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